A flake cause needs a recorded reproduction

The coordinator’s decisions of 2026-10-08 (LAND-OC-FIX round 5 §3, refined in rounds 6, 9, 11 and 12). They carry out the user’s 2026-10-07 rule that a flaky failure is never forgiven by re-running it or by waiting for it to age out.

• No window, no aging out (rounds 11 to 13, design NH-E). Both suites’ flaky memories judge every failing row through the one judgement (judgeFlakyMemory, engine/src/workflow/flaky-burn-down.ts); there is no lookback window. The run history may be compacted (it keeps its newest HISTORY_KEPT rows), the suspects never: a failing row it trims moves to the ledger’s never-trimmed suspect archive (flaky-suspects.json beside it), which the memory reads before the ledger (round 13, design HIGH 2). A red suspect stays red until it is explained below, or until a shrink-only burn-down entry names it with an open owning task row — an owned red, never a pass. No run is ever made to push a failure out of anything, and the guard never advises it.
• When a suspect stops indicting. A flaky-memory suspect is explained by a declared and reproduced fix only when all of the following hold:
  • a commit declares that it fixed the cause, in a Flake-cause: trailer (<ledger identity> => <paths>[ @ <fix commit>]); the test’s own file may be a declared cause;
  • the fix’s change to the declared causes is SEMANTIC: at least one cause’s semantic form differs between the fix’s parent and the fix. The form is the AST without comments and layout, read by the parser that already owns the kind: Babel for JavaScript and TypeScript (with TYPES ERASED: a type-only edit changes no behaviour, round 12; the type-only modifiers too — an optional ?, an accessibility, readonly, override, a definite ! — round 13), tree-sitter for C, the canonical value for JSON (engine/src/quality/languages/semantic-form.ts). Markdown is never a semantic change. A comment-only, format-only or type-only edit is refused by name, and so is a cause whose kind no reader judges. This is the strict direction: a failure that depends on types alone can never be explained by a type-only fix (round 12’s “a type-only edit counts if the failure depends on types” is not implemented; such a suspect stays red, owned);
  • a recorded reproduction of that test and fix exists, and it ran the parent and the fix under the SAME conditions (environment, setup command, command run alongside, preloaded shim module, order seed);
  • every indicting failure measured the fix’s parent bytes at every declared path, the test’s own file keyed WHOLE (round 12: the per-test closure parser was deleted — a sibling test that pollutes module state, a sibling suite body, a hoisted mock, an import kept for its side effects all live in the file, so the whole file is the strict and simple key);
  • every indicting failure said what the reproduction’s parent runs said (its digest) AND happened where they did: its LOCATION — the assertion’s operator and the function names of the first frames of the test’s own file, never line numbers (failureLocation, engine/src/shared/run-history.ts; a failure that names neither is compared by its digest alone);
  • the fix has not RECURRED: a digest its reproduction saw, failing on bytes other than the fix’s parent’s for ANY identity the fix is declared for, voids the fix for that digest for all of them (design NH-D). Bytes OLDER than the parent count too: content keys carry no order, so the rule errs strict (correctness F-L4; ordering by ancestry: FLAKE-RECURRENCE-ORDER).
• The bar is a probability, from config (round 12, design F-N3). A fix is accepted only if a fix that changed nothing would show the counts — the parent failing f of N runs, the fix none of N — with probability at most α: the one-sided Fisher exact probability C(N, f) / C(2N, f) ≤ α (testExecution.flakeReproduction.significance, 0.01; noOpFixProbability, reproductionStrength). The runs per side a failure rate needs follow from it (runsNeeded; at least testExecution.flakeReproduction.statisticalRuns, and --runs asks for more, never fewer). N is NOT derived from the observed rate before the runs (design 8e): the door runs the configured minimum or what --runs asks, and the bar is applied to the counts those runs OBSERVED; a rate too low for that N is refused with the runs it would need (runsNeeded, in the refusal), which the next attempt asks for — and pays for as one more look. Every look counts (round 13): a (test, fix) claim attempted k times — the refused attempts included, read from the kept attempts — is judged at α / k, by the door and by the verdict alike, so re-attempting until one attempt passes never inflates the claim’s error. One run per side is strong only for a deterministic shim REGISTERED in config (testExecution.flakeReproduction.deterministicShims) whose parent run failed; any other preload needs the runs an all-failing parent needs. The web runner takes a preload too, pinned and recorded exactly like the engine’s: the door sets NODE_OPTIONS for it, and a request’s own NODE_OPTIONS is a door-owned variable, refused. A weaker record is reported with the runs it needed, and explains nothing.
• Every attempt is kept; a record counts only when an attempt shows it (round 12, design B4; round 13, R3-2). The door writes every attempt — refused ones included — as ONE FILE per attempt in attempts/ beside the records (engine/traceability/flake-reproductions/), NAMED BY THE SHA256 OF ITS BYTES: its conditions, mode, runs, the evidence-store digests of every run’s output (the outputs are KEPT as evidence) and the sha256 of each record it wrote. A record whose bytes no attempt recorded — written or edited by hand — explains nothing. Each attempt is checked on its own: one whose name is not its hash, whose bytes are not the one serializer’s, or whose id another attempt also claims is refused ALONE, and every other attempt still holds. Two branches’ attempts are two files, so a merge is their union and never breaks the store (round 12’s single hash-chained log broke on the first two-branch append). What it proves, exactly: a record’s bytes are the bytes an attempt names, and an attempt was not edited after it was named. It is NOT signed: a same-user process can write a well-formed attempt and record on purpose (the lock token’s limit), and a committed attempt’s removal is seen only by git, and an UNCOMMITTED attempt’s removal is seen by nothing: a claim’s look count (α / k) is read from the attempt files present, so deleting an uncommitted refused attempt lowers it unseen. An attempt a later schema refuses is still a look (round 14). Records made before the attempts were kept (schema v2) are ignored by name.
• An entry nothing can explain. A burn-down entry whose failures this rule can never explain (they measured other bytes, or no reproduction exists) is owned by a row naming E-01 (GC-0, the coordinator’s decision). That decision may: keep it owned; close it with a recorded reason in its row (the commit removing the entry names the decision); or re-record it under the door. It never clears by itself.
• A test that moved. A suspect whose identity left the hermetic suite clears only by a recorded move (harness flake move): the door reads the move commit’s and its parent’s test inventories, and the verdict checks the destination against the live suite’s manifest. A test that merely vanished has no move, and stays red.
• How a record is written. There is one door, harness flake. reproduce runs the tests on the fix’s parent and then on the fix, each in a private worktree that the one checkout setup prepares, inside the host’s one instrument lock. Only a test that failed on the parent and passed every run on the fix gets a record. The conditions never carry a credential (D-09).
• Every run is in a fresh world (round 6 §S0, §S4). The door creates a private folder per run under the run’s temp root (D-19, refused inside the safety floor) holding the run’s HOME and TMPDIR, and refuses to run anything unless both resolve strictly inside it. The variables the door owns — HOME, TMPDIR, its output folder and ANY GIT_* — are never a request’s --env and never a record’s condition: one predicate, isDoorOwnedVariable (round 12, security F-2, F-3). The recorded conditions pass the one persistence redaction (UR-21): a credential reaches the run, never the record. The refusal of a setup or alongside command that recursively removes $HOME, ~ or a variable it did not make with mktemp -d, and the whole-tree guard holding every recorded shim, npm script, shell script and test string to the same rule (engine/test/prevention/no-unconfined-recursive-removal.test.ts), are a LINT over the text, not the boundary: the fresh world is the boundary (security F-1).
• A reproduction runs the named commit’s code. Like ws validate, it installs and runs the parent’s and the fix’s trees unconfined, as the operator. Name only a commit whose code you would run.
• The syntax is judged at commit time. The commit-msg door checks every Flake-cause: trailer. A malformed trailer already in pushed history is reported, with its commit, and ignored; it is never thrown.
• The one other explanation: a regenerated artifact. The coordinator-filed sidecar is deleted. The regression gate suite’s arms judge the profile report, which is an artifact, not source, so no tree’s bytes reproduce it: a failure of those arms recorded strictly before the regeneration instant the profile step wrote INTO a report that can be judged (generatedAt, read through the one predicate judgeableProfileReport) judged a report that no longer exists. Never the file’s mtime (a touch proves nothing; design F6).
• The limits, stated (design F5, security T-3). A declared cause outside the test’s file is keyed by its declared paths only: a module the test imports is held when it is declared, not because it is imported. Code the test reaches through eval or a computed import is the declared paths’ business too.
• Status. The status is partial until every suspect is re-declared under these rules with a record the log shows, or owned by a burn-down entry (FLAKE-REPRO-REDECLARE).